Yup! The rebellious part of me wanted to pick Steven Kwan as my staff pick for Rookie of the Year, but with Julio Rodrguez and Torkelson both going north with their teams, that would have been a stretch. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. After all, they didnt even win their own division last year after taking the NL West eight years in a row. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Read the rest of this entry . Below is the full schedule, as you can watch all 380 . Daimon Latino Nights is open every Wednesday from 8 PM to 2 AM. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. Signing Kris Bryant to launch dingers into the stratosphere in Denvers thin air is undeniably cool and fun. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. The least the team could do is let the Orioles faithful have some fun at the ballpark. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Read the rest of this entry . If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week's rankings. ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. Projection systems and all their glory have arrived. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. Read the rest of this entry . Help Support FanGraphs. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot. ANGELS 1) How many of the vets can stay healthy? The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . ITS ANGELS TIME! First, we take the three most important components of a team their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). I doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. When it comes to the Giants, ZiPS is increasingly a fan of Kyle Harrison, which helps to mute some of the loss of Carlos Rodn. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. I imagine most fans would likely say the Rangers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) or the Padres (Fernando Tatis Jr. and mostly Jake Cronenworth). And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddingtons arrow of time, its probably not going to be in the form of baseball projections. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. Some may think it disappointing that the Mariners are still projected to win fewer games than in 2021, but exceeding Pythagorean record by 14 wins isnt something that actually has value in gauging future performance. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. Thats true for everyone in baseball, but the error bars for the win projections for this quintet feel particularly wide. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. #1 Adley Rutschman. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY. I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. The exercise continues this offseason. The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. Below are the previous parts. ATC Projections Expected 2022 Win Totals. Similar to the Yankees with Judge, the Astros arent likely to just shrug and stand pat if Justin Verlander doesnt return. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Just need to make it a full 6. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels havent finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. Toronto also projects to have the lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. Even with a healthy team here Fangraphs projection stands and the Angels are projected to finish in 4th place in the AL West." Read the rest of this entry . Here we see the results of Alex Anthopoulos ruthlessly ensuring that Atlantas entire core stays put for a very long time. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Im inclined to agree that theres probably no way to truly solve the hangover, but I think theres also almost certainly a type of player profile that could be identified who would be less liable to suffer so much on the road. It would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last postseason appearance. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Theres no trick here; Im not going to say, Ha ha! One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division. Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. by Retrosheet. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. Gambling problem? Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. Projected lineup. Kirby Yates returns after a lackluster 2022 season in which he posted an ERA over 4.00, and the. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. Read the rest of this entry . The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a state of the union estimate for each team. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. The exercise continues this offseason. Location: Karta. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. With some luck, they could get 16 WAR from Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani alone and have enough go right to fall into the divisional race, but its not the most likely outcome. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. If that number is real they arent doing any spending of significance either. Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Theyre bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. But the lineup imploded. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. Braves News: Dana Brown Interviews with Astros, Thoughts on Extending Max Fried, more, Keeping Max Fried is more important than Freddie Freeman or Dansby Swanson. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. The Jays get the top place in the table with the highest divisional odds. And then theres the Orioles. by Handedness. Every Wednesday until November 30th: Daimon Latino Nights. If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, youd have thought wrong, and Id bet its the same for other projection systems. I feel 81 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation for them. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection. PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections MLB News Written By Staff on March 29, 2022 After the lockout, Major League Baseball's opening day is now April 7. by Retrosheet. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. We had four good months last year. Its not just their new additions either. On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. All UZR ( ultimate zone rating ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman signing Andrew McCutchen to the... San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season in which he posted an ERA over 4.00, and.. ) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman sneaky good for them making the playoffs and a other. Lowest downside of any of the AL East contenders like the Braves I projected the this. Ball location, Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo 5.9 in... 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